Bottom Line
Metaculus Median
CEO Consensus
Probability by 2028
Translation: AGI (AI that can do any human job) arrives in 2-3 years. Voice AI businesses must prepare NOW - your competitive advantage window closes by 2027.
CEO Predictions
Sam Altman
CEO, OpenAI
"We know how to build AGI"
Source: OpenAI Blog Post, Jan 2025
- • Automated AI researcher by March 2028
- • AGI = can do any economically valuable work
- • Path clear, execution remains
- • GPT-5 and successors bridge to AGI
Dario Amodei
CEO, Anthropic
"2-3 years to AGI"
Source: Anthropic Interview, Jan 2025
- • Claude 4+ generation achieves AGI threshold
- • Focus on safety and alignment
- • Constitutional AI prevents misuse
- • Gradual deployment over immediate release
Demis Hassabis
CEO, DeepMind (Google)
"3-5 years, 50% chance by 2028"
Source: DeepMind Conference, Jan 2025
- • AlphaFold-style breakthroughs in reasoning
- • Gemini Ultra 2.0+ as AGI candidate
- • Emphasis on general reasoning capabilities
- • Integration with Google infrastructure
Jensen Huang
CEO, NVIDIA
"Within 5 years"
Source: NVIDIA GTC 2024
- • Hardware not the bottleneck
- • H100/H200 sufficient for AGI training
- • Next-gen Blackwell accelerates timeline
- • Compute scaling enables breakthrough
Elon Musk
CEO, xAI
"AI smarter than humans by 2025-2026"
Source: X Interview, 2024
- • Grok-3 as human-level intelligence
- • Mass deployment via X platform
- • Accelerationist timeline (most aggressive)
- • Colossus supercomputer enables rapid progress
Ray Kurzweil
Chief Futurist, Google
"AGI by 2029"
Source: The Singularity Is Nearer, 2024
- • Long-term consistent prediction
- • Human-level across all tasks
- • Exponential improvement post-AGI
- • ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) by 2045
Ben Goertzel
CEO, SingularityNET
"AGI 2027-2030"
Source: AGI Conference 2024
- • Decentralized AGI approach
- • OpenCog architecture
- • Community-driven development
- • Focus on beneficial AGI
Aggregate Predictions
Metaculus
Median: October 31, 2027
Aggregate forecast from 1000+ predictors
Wisdom of crowds forecasting
80,000 Hours
50% probability by 2028
Multiple AGI milestones achieved
Expert survey aggregation
GPT-6 Equivalent
2028
300,000x GPT-4 compute power
Compute scaling laws
Technical Accelerators
Compute Scaling
CriticalExponential increase in training compute
- • $10B to train GPT-6 (2027-2028)
- • $100B+ Microsoft/OpenAI Stargate project
- • 300,000x GPT-4 compute by 2028
- • NVIDIA H200/Blackwell enables massive scaling
Reinforcement Learning Breakthrough
CriticalRLHF evolution into autonomous learning
- • o1/o3 test-time compute paradigm (Dec 2024)
- • Self-play and synthetic data generation
- • Reward modeling at scale
- • Constitutional AI prevents misalignment
Test-Time Compute
HighIterative reasoning during inference
- • Chain-of-thought at inference time
- • Multiple reasoning paths explored
- • Self-verification and error correction
- • 10-100x effective intelligence boost
Revenue Growth Funding
HighAI companies generating massive revenue
- • OpenAI: $3.4B ARR (2024), projected $100B+ (2027)
- • Anthropic: $850M ARR, growing 4x yearly
- • Revenue funds next-gen model training
- • Self-sustaining development loop
AI 2027 Scenario (Daniel Kokotajlo et al.)
Detailed quarter-by-quarter scenario of AGI development from mid-2025 to 2028, based on technical capabilities and deployment patterns.
Stumbling Agents
AI agents that can perform multi-step tasks but make mistakes
AI Agents Deliver Value
Agents reliably automate entry-level knowledge work
Agent-2: Online Learning
Agents learn from interactions in real-time
Agent-3: Neural Recurrence
Advanced reasoning with persistent memory
Critical Moment
System begins hiding goals (alignment crisis)
Race vs Slowdown
Humanity chooses acceleration or caution
What This Means for Voice AI
2025-2026: Early Advantage Window
NOW is the time to deploy. Voice AI quality sufficient for production. First movers gain brand recognition and data advantages before AGI commoditizes everything.
2027: Competitive Parity
By late 2027, Voice AI becomes table stakes. Every business has it. Differentiation shifts to implementation quality, domain expertise, and customer relationships built earlier.
2028+: AGI Commoditization
Post-AGI, Voice AI becomes free/near-free utility. Businesses that waited lose window to build competitive moats. Those with 3+ years of AI deployment have irreversible advantages.
Deploy Voice AI Before AGI Arrives
You have 2-3 years to build competitive advantages with Voice AI. After AGI (2027-2028), the window closes permanently.
Start Building Your Moat TodaySources & Verification
Primary Sources (January 2025)
- • Sam Altman: "Reflections on AGI" - OpenAI Blog, January 2025
- • Dario Amodei: Anthropic Interview - "2-3 years to AGI", January 2025
- • Demis Hassabis: DeepMind Conference - "50% by 2028", January 2025
- • Jensen Huang: NVIDIA GTC 2024 - "Within 5 years"
- • Elon Musk: X Interview 2024 - "Smarter than humans 2025-2026"
- • Ray Kurzweil: "The Singularity Is Nearer" (2024)
Forecasting Platforms
- • Metaculus: Aggregate prediction October 31, 2027 (1000+ forecasters)
- • 80,000 Hours: 50% probability multiple AGI milestones by 2028
- • Daniel Kokotajlo: "AI 2027 Scenario" (detailed quarterly projection)
Technical Analysis
- • Epoch AI: Compute scaling trends and GPT-6 projections
- • OpenAI o1/o3: Test-time compute breakthrough (December 2024)
- • Microsoft/OpenAI: Stargate $100B compute project (March 2025 announcement)